The Cynical Optimist

I’d like to see it as a function of GDP, but while that may lower the gap between what is perceived in that chart as 115% and 16%, there will still be striking disparity.

There is no question that deficit spending as a function of GDP during the Reagan administration in particular, is the highest relative increase since WWII. It went from about 25% in the early 80s to 40% by the time Reagan left office.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Federal_Debt.png

There is also no question that after the US economy settled down following the end of WWII, republican administrations from the latter half of the 20th century until now have committed to a greater degree of deficit spending as a function of GDP versus democratic administrations.

I would go further to say that recessions tend to be a causal factor in periods where deficit spending occurs above average rates; however, there is no reason to say that one party has been more prone to recessions than the other, granted patterns in US elections indicate that voters switch ruling parties following bad economic climates (which means both parties generally get an equal amount of exposure to recessionary periods because voters “punish” those who are in office when a recession starts).

Based on that, I would conclude that the reasons behind the greater percentages during republican reign are:

- Republicans’ tendency to cut income taxes moreso than their liberal counterparts (thus lowering tax revenue despite maintaining a disproportionately expensive number of government services like medicare and social security).

- Republicans’ tendency to adopt more aggressive foreign policy insofar as going to war is concerned–which again, is a huge drain on government expenditures.

More recently, I would point to two wars initiated by George Bush (costing in the trillions) and a tax rate adopted by his administration which is at a historical low. I would also point to George Bush’s deregulation of a multi-trillion dollar derivatives market juxtaposed with the promotion of speculation on commodities such as oil, which in turn results in price increases being dealt to the consumer, who in turn has less money to spend in favor of economic growth and tax revenue.

The irony–and I’m digressing a bit now–of all this is that China is dependent on our uncontrollable deficit rates to the extent that our debt market is the only one in the world that’s adequately large enough and liquid enough for China to invest its surplus into. Chinese purchases of US Dollars and bonds (artificially) lowers the value of the Yuan currency and enables us to buy cheap goods/services from China. Referring to the ironic part, we’re pressuring the Chinese to quit devaluing their currency so that the US wouldn’t have a trade imbalance/deficit, but if China were to actually alleviate this issue by allowing its currency to appreciate, it would have to stop purchasing our debt, which would essentially bankrupt our economy in that we’d be unable to pay off on the interest on our current debt–not to mention that a strengthening Yuan would further inflate the dollar (we’d need to print more of it to pay out interest on public debt) and cease our ability to purchase goods/services for cheap from the Chinese.

It’s quite simply, really.

[Download MP3]

She’s walkin past by
I’m high
Don’t have a clue
What the fuck to do

 I’m lookin up shy
Oh why
Should I give a shit
If my game is dry

I’m tryin to see how
Oh how
Can she do so much
And leave me so touched

He’s prolly wonderin why
She sighs
No man can
Give it to her right

It’s so wonderful
To do what you wanna do
When you’re in control
There’s nothin stopin you

I’m walkin past by
She’s high
Off my looks
And off of my vibe

But she don’t understand
Why a man
Don’t ask her
Baby gimme your hand

It’s about a man’s pride
He strives
To play this lame game
And to keep his sane

 But in the end I
Will make you sigh
And take your hand baby
And make you cry

– Download MP3 –

 Cold World, real Cold World
Them boys cool, me I’m on fire
Know what’s on my mind, trying to see what’s on yours
Tonight, tonight

Move slow, cause you wanna live fast
Up late so you’ll probably skip class
Life is a test so before the night pass
Get right, get right

We’ve got a good thing
Don’t know if I’mma see you again
But is that a good thing?
Cause girl, I wanna be your man
I know what’s on your brain
You’re probably hoping never would end
Like, “is it the real thing
Or is it just a one night stand?”

Straight up, now tell me
Do you really want to love me forever?
Or is it just a hit and run?
Straight up, I tell ya
I just really wanna cut when we together
Come here girl, let’s get it on

It’s easy to say the West funds terrorism, because yes, Iran sells Oil to the West (excluding the US, which gets the bulk of its oil from Canada), and uses the oil money from the West to finance the terrorism

The reason the logic of this argument bothers me is because I can argue that “anything” indirectly causes “anything” in the grand scheme of things.

What I’m concerned with is the fact that terrorist groups like Hezbollah are receiving direct funding from petroleum-producing countries like Iran.  Saying that the West is responsible for how Iran uses its oil profits is like saying that your paying money to a grocery store owner, who then uses that money to buy guns to kill someone, makes you responsible for his victim’s death.

You needed those groceries to survive as badly as the West needs its oil in order to bring you those farmland-grown groceries from hundreds of miles away at a relatively affordable price.

What the grocer or oil-producer choose to do with the money that we pay them is THEIR direct responsibility.  I understand that sometimes we directly fund illegal activity, but legitimate conspiracy theories aside, do you see where I’m coming from?  Most of that terrorist activity is going to come from indirect sources that we cannot control.

You will have to get over the fact that by our very existence, we are causing the occurrence or omission of many occurrences.  We cannot sit down and mourn every indirect result of our existence, let alone indirect results of our actions.  I’m trying to make a philosophical point.

The buck HAS TO STOP with the closest trigger of a said event within the respective chain of triggers.  Otherwise, you’ll have to hold everything and everyone responsible for everything that has occurred and not occured.

Maybe 2012 will be an amazing year because direct entities that cause certain occurrences will have the balls to accept responsibility instead of passing the buck.

If technologies like this take off–or any cheap energy alternative, for that matter–it’ll be rewarding to see its crippling effect on the finance of global terrorism.

When I saw the above video I immediately thought of floating cars.  One initial push and your car would continuing moving until stopped by an outside force… eternal kinetic force feeding inertia without the bridle of friction … fabulous.  No need for red lights / stopping either, since cars going opposite directions can travel at different elevations to avoid collision.

This is the movement in question: [Link 1] [Link 2] (The “Occupy Wallstreet” movement has the respectable goal of getting back at banks for raising fees, by encouraging depositors to move all their money to credit unions).

I posted the following message to the Facebook page of the movement, as well as to the Facebook profile of its founder:

As one of YOU, I fully support your cause (I really, WHOLEHEARTEDLY do), but here is why I refuse to join:

This is a bit scary to the extent that it could cause a bank run if it gets enough exposure. Ironically, a bank run would probably result in another round of bailouts.

Even if there’s no bailout, keeping in mind that the fractional reserve system has banks only holding 10 or 20% of depositors’ money in reserve, the other 80% will have to be compensated from the FDIC. And guess what ultimately backs the FDIC? Tax-payers’ money.

This is a financial system that’s designed to fuck over the American consumer no matter how you try to fight it. Granted, I presented a worst-case scenario where the movement would have enough exposure to deplete banks of all their reserves. Even a grass roots movement that would cause a hindrance of, say 5%, can potentially put banks in the red enough for them to have to tap into the FDIC.

I should also note that I acknowledge FDIC’s insurance limit of $250K, but most millionaires are millionaires because they’re smart enough not to hold all of their money in cash (via checking or savings accounts, or even CDs). Hence, most of the lost money resulting from a bank run would in fact be within the FDIC’s insured limit since most accounts are under $250K in value, and since most wealth held by banks is an accumulation of such accounts as opposed to million-dollar accounts.

Please view these links for reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_run
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_reserve_system

Best,

Robert Rafii

…here’s a chat log from a conversation I just had with a good friend.  Keep in mind UNIX underpins both Mac OS X, Apple’s desktop operating system, and iOS, which runs the iPhone and the iPad.

My Friend: did you hear that the father of C and one of the inventors of UNIX passed away recently?  that guy did so much more for us than that steve jobs ever did
Me: i did not.  steve jobs is overrated.  i don’t make light of anyone’s death but i’ll just share my philosophy with you in a photo.
My Friend: ritchie invented the programming language every reputable OS is written in
My Friend: have you ever heard of the kerrigan and ritchie book about C
My Friend: this guy was dennis ritchie
Me: i haven’t heard of him.  which is further testament to the sad fact that the guys who deserve real credit are often fucked over by others
My Friend: http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2011/10/thedennisritchieeffect/
My Friend: this was literally the guy who invented C and helped invent UNIX at bell labs
My Friend: very important fellow
Me: isn’t it peculiar that he died 3 days after jobs?
Me: maybe nature is trying to prove a point.
Me: that people who matter the most are the ones that we often overlook
Me: nature: “don’t believe me? here i’ll kill this guy 3 days after steve job’s and you’ll see.”

I don’t agree with this article, but it’s an interesting read.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch

What is Fallibilism?

One child’s death in America is a tragedy. One child’s death in Africa is a statistic. I’m as sorry for this girl’s death as the next person, but I can’t help being annoyed by how the media allows this to overshadow 24,000 kids a day dying in more painful ways just in one continent alone.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110113/ap_on_re_us/us_congresswoman_shot